Anyone Ever Heard of This?

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Anyone Ever Heard of This?

Postby LauraK on Sat Nov 08, 2008 7:35 pm

I realize Bush was his party's choice for re-election in '04 so he ran against the Repub nominee for the presidency. Same with Clinton and any other prez who took a second tem of office.

What I was wondering was (and I don't think I've ever heard of)......if, in 4 years, Obama's popularity has dropped as low as, say.....Bush's is now- what would hapen? Would the Democratic party automatically nominate him since he's the sitting president? Do they HAVE to? Or would they pick a fresh Dem to run against the Repub nominee and Obama would effectively be run out of the White House?

If THAT happened.....what would the sitting president be doing?? (Aside from walking around with his tail between his legs.) I mean, the Democratic National Convention is in Aug and the president's term doesn't end until the following January......
That would be quite an uncomfortable time.

Has this ever happened?

Also, while searching around I found this, about a sneaky and supposedly legal way for getting in more than 2 terms: http://www.slate.com/id/2187034/pagenum/all/
Is this for real?? If so, I'm surprised Clinton/Gore didn't try it!

What are your thoughts?

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Re: Anyone Ever Heard of This?

Postby LauraK on Sat Nov 08, 2008 8:22 pm

My Mom, Aunt and I were talking about this today and all of us had a moment of "Ummmmm, I have no idea."

So this isn't against Obama, or saying that I think this will happen. We just wondered- is it a given that the sitting prez will be their party's nominee?

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Re: Anyone Ever Heard of This?

Postby doodoobird on Sun Nov 09, 2008 3:39 am

What election was it what election was it????

Research the 1968 presidential election, I think. Before Johnson decided to step down and not run again. I believe there was talk of another Dem running against him. Not sure. I am trying to remember..... I got an example in our history of the same exact scenario unfolding that your wondering about..... I cant for the fucking life of me remember. But I believe its Johnson.
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Re: Anyone Ever Heard of This?

Postby LauraK on Sun Nov 09, 2008 4:47 am

But what's the criteria? That could actually happen, the sitting president knowing he's not his own party's choice to run for re-election?

That would be historic......

Asked to explain why he was unpopular, Johnson responded, "I am a dominating personality, and when I get things done I don't always please all the people." Johnson also blamed the press, saying they showed "complete irresponsibility and lie and misstate facts and have no one to be answerable to." He also blamed "the preachers, liberals and professors" who had turned against him.


Hmmm, opinion on the media hasn't changed much since his assessment.

This was quite interesting:
Entering the 1968 election campaign, initially, no prominent Democratic candidate was prepared to run against a sitting President of his own party. Only Senator Eugene McCarthy of Minnesota challenged Johnson as an anti-war candidate in the New Hampshire primary, hoping to pressure the Democrats to oppose the war. On March 12, McCarthy won 42% of the primary vote to Johnson's 49%, an amazingly strong showing for such a challenger. Four days later, Sen. Robert F. Kennedy of New York entered the race. Internal polling by Johnson's campaign in Wisconsin, the next state to hold a primary election, showed the President trailing badly. Johnson did not leave the White House to campaign.

President Johnson meets with candidate Richard Nixon in July 1968Johnson had lost control of the Democratic Party, which was splitting into four factions, each of which despised the other three. The first consisted of Johnson (and Humphrey), labor unions, and local party bosses (led by Chicago Mayor Richard J. Daley). The second group was students and intellectuals who were vociferously against the war, and rallied behind McCarthy. The third group was Catholics and African Americans; they rallied behind Robert Kennedy. The fourth group was traditional white Southerners, who rallied behind George C. Wallace and the American Independent Party. Vietnam was one of many issues that splintered the party and Johnson could see no way to unite the party long enough for him to win reelection.

In addition, Johnson was concerned that he might not make it through another term. Therefore, at the end of a March 31 speech, he shocked the nation when he announced he would not run for re-election: "I shall not seek, and I will not accept the nomination of my party for another term as your President." He did rally the party bosses and unions to give Humphrey the nomination. In what was termed the October surprise, Johnson announced to the nation on October 31, 1968, that he had ordered a complete cessation of "all air, naval and artillery bombardment of North Vietnam", effective November 1, should the Hanoi Government be willing to negotiate and citing progress with the Paris peace talks.

LBJ was not disqualified from running for a second full term under the provisions of the 22nd Amendment; he had served less than 24 months of President Kennedy's term. Had he stayed in the race and won and served out the new term, he would have been president for 9 years, second only to Franklin Delano Roosevelt.


But what if the president won't roll over and quit? Does he have the right to say, "poop on you all! I want to run again and I'm going to!" ~Or~ can his party say "too damn bad....we're backing someone else, you're outta here. No 2'nd term for you!"
:?: :?: :?:

Thanks, DDB.

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Re: Anyone Ever Heard of This?

Postby doodoobird on Sun Nov 09, 2008 10:04 pm

I think so. Or maybe not. Senator liberman would be a good example of the Dems not wanting you anymore. But you see, the Dems would never do that to a sitting president no matter how unpopular he is. Why? Think about it: That unpopular president will still get a decent amount of votes. Shit, if George Bush were to run right now he will still at least get 10 to 20 percent of the vote. Not much but it sure as hell will be enough to ensure victory for the other party because those votes will be taken away directly from the new choice of the Dems in this hypothetical situation. See what am saying? So no party would ever be that dumb. By the way, Joe Liberman is my fav Dem. He also went to my high school back in the dizzay.
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Re: Anyone Ever Heard of This?

Postby Betsy_Boo on Mon Nov 10, 2008 6:39 am

Interesting question LK. I don't think it would happen...think Jimmy Carter. Personally, I liked Carter but he was very unpopular after his first term. Now whether a sitting president can be knocked out of the running, I would guess that if he had a challenger who was popular he could be kicked out during the primaries couldn't he?
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Re: Anyone Ever Heard of This?

Postby mojomofo1 on Mon Nov 10, 2008 12:38 pm

Obama isn't a shoo-in for 2012 necessarily. Do I think he will probably get the nomination with a less than stellar perfomance as Pres? Sure, barring someone new popping up and an absolutely abysmal first term. I don't think the Dem. party is obligated to nominate the incumbent, but with the strong supporters Obama has, as well as the record breaking money he was able to raise, I seriously doubt they would go any other way. I can't think of any other Dem. politician that has the drawing power Obama has. I guess if by some fluke he didn't get the nomination in 2012, he could run as as one of the third parties. But I think he will do a great job, so I'm not even worried about it. :D
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Re: Anyone Ever Heard of This?

Postby LauraK on Mon Nov 10, 2008 12:59 pm

Yes but didn't most presidents who didn't get a second term voluntarily step down? The big "I will not seek nor will I be accepting my party's nomination, yadayada..."

What If the prez DOESN'T want to step down? Has that ever happened and what if it did? Is there law regarding such a thing?

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Re: Anyone Ever Heard of This?

Postby mojomofo1 on Mon Nov 10, 2008 2:55 pm

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Re: Anyone Ever Heard of This?

Postby LauraK on Mon Nov 10, 2008 5:00 pm

Nope, that's all related strictly to this most recent election- but thanks! :)

Has there ever been a sitting president who was challenged by another of his own party for the right to gain the nomination to run for the Presidency that would have been his 2nd term? And could that happen?? I just cannot find anything on this myself....and I don't think it's ever happened...

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Re: Anyone Ever Heard of This?

Postby LauraK on Mon Nov 10, 2008 5:06 pm

I found this but it doesn't really address my question:

Q. What advantages and disadvantages do incumbent presidents face in elections?

A: First of all, it's an historical fact that most sitting presidents running for reelection have been successful. Not all of course — in fact, in recent history we've had several that have been unsuccessful. The first President Bush in 1992 and President Carter in 1980 both failed to win reelection. It's also the case that Gerald Ford, who had moved up to the presidency without having been elected to it, also failed in his reelection effort in 1976.

But, in general, presidents tend to win a second term. That's partly because they oftentimes avoid any primary challenge that would harm their candidacy by highlighting their vulnerabilities. However, the first President Bush, President Carter, and President Ford all faced primary campaign challenges. The fact that the current president, George W. Bush, is not facing any competition for the Republican nomination is a tremendous advantage to him.

Secondly, sitting presidents are in a position to dominate what Theodore Roosevelt called "the bully pulpit" — that is, to set the agenda, and focus the attention of the public on matters that work to their advantage. Occasionally, by taking actions with respect to foreign policy and domestic economic policy, they are in a position to change the reality on the ground so it can work to their advantage in the election itself. They also have an easier time — as incumbents — raising money, garnering resources. They have benefits they can distribute to party activists that provide an advantage in the election itself.

Now the disadvantage for an incumbent is that presidents tend to be given credit for good things that happen during their term and blame for the bad things, whether they deserve the credit or blame. So, being in office during good times is a route to reelection. But being the incumbent president when the economy is sour, or when a foreign policy has gone bad is a distinct disadvantage. Elections in many respects are referendums on the perceived performance of the sitting administration.

If times are good, it's an advantage. If times are bad, it's clearly a disadvantage.


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Re: Anyone Ever Heard of This?

Postby mojomofo1 on Mon Nov 10, 2008 5:36 pm

http://wiki.answers.com/Q/Has_an_incumbent_president_ever_lost_the_nomination_to_run_for_a_second_term

Here is a wiki link (duh, obviously :) ) for the same question. It looks like it has happened a few times, but it doesn't go into a whole lot of detail on why.
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Re: Anyone Ever Heard of This?

Postby doodoobird on Mon Nov 10, 2008 11:22 pm

I didnt read any of the recent post so I hope am not just repeating.

I believe it was Cleveland who served two non consecutive terms. I also believe that the Dems (or Repub) can disown a sitting president so he would have to run as an independent, or third party, for his second term but this WILL NEVER happen. Obama, for example, would run for a third party (or independent) if were to be 'disowned' by the Dems for his second term. This would insure a Republican victory, assuming the republicans are united. Obama would split the Democratic vote by doing this (any major party candidate in this situation). The new choice for the Dems would most likely get a lot of votes, and Obama would also get a lot of votes. BUT nowhere near enough to beat a united Republican party (vise versa if the situation were the other way.). That Republican would get most of the republican votes while the Dem votes would go to their new candidate and the third party (independent) Obama. The final election day numbers would probably look something like this:

Just for shits and giggles but if this situation were to actually happen it probably REALLY WOULD like something like this. The popular vote, that is.


Palin (Republican Party) 47%

Hillary Clinton (Democratic party) 24%

Barak Obama (Third party/ Independent) 22%

Other (Green Party/ Socialist party/ so on and so forth) 7%



And by the way, I hope to God Palin DOES NOT run for president next time around. I like that Jindal (I believe its spelled) guy, honestly.
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Re: Anyone Ever Heard of This?

Postby LauraK on Tue Nov 11, 2008 4:47 am

Thanks, Mojo! I was not getting it worded correctly I guess. :D

Can you imagine this happening in our time?? I can't.

DDB, she may run but she won't make it past the first primaries, imo.

Thanks, everyone!

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Re: Anyone Ever Heard of This?

Postby mojomofo1 on Wed Nov 12, 2008 5:12 pm

No problem!

I doubt Palin would make it past the primaries either, for what it's worth. She is a very engaging person, but as leader of the country?
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